New Data Analysis Sheds Light on Tribal Voter Turnout Decline in 2024
GRIN Staff
Gila River Indian News
An analysis of 2024 voter turnout data conducted by the Inter Tribal Council of Arizona (ITCA) reveals new insights into the downturn in tribal voting across the state, including within the Gila River Indian Community (GRIC).
GRIC’s turnout of 49% in 2024 remained higher than some tribal communities, but still lagged behind the Ak-Chin Indian Community, which recorded a 62% turnout, and the Navajo Nation, which had 59.67% participation. GRIC saw a slight decline from 50% voter turnout during the 2020 election, but remained above the 47% turnout in the 2016 election.
According to the ITCA, voter turnout in Arizona’s reservation precincts dropped by 11% overall compared to 2020, even as voter participation in the rest of Arizona remained largely unchanged.
This decline represents a stark contrast to 2020, when turnout on reservations increased by 29% over 2016 levels, fueled by a strong push for Native voter engagement during that election cycle. Among Arizona’s tribes, the Navajo Nation saw a particularly significant decline in 2024, with turnout falling 11% from 2020 levels. Other tribes, such as the San Carlos Apache (-12%) and Pascua Yaqui (-20%), also reported lower numbers.
One of the contributing factors to declining voter participation in Native communities, according to the ITCA report, is the issue of ballot rejections. Tribal voters, particularly those living on reservations, faced disproportionately high rejection rates.
Many mail-in ballots were rejected due to mismatched or missing signatures, a common issue that can arise when voters’ signatures change over time or when clerical errors occur. Late ballot submissions also posed a significant problem, particularly in remote areas where mail delivery delays made it difficult for ballots to reach election offices on time. Voter registration issues further complicated participation, as some voters had outdated addresses on file, leading to confusion about their assigned polling places, while others unknowingly cast ballots in the wrong precinct, rendering their votes invalid. These challenges combined to create substantial barriers to voter turnout among tribal communities across Arizona.
GRIC was among the communities where ballot rejection rates were notably higher than in off-reservation precincts. In Pinal County, where a significant portion of GRIC voters are registered, dozens of ballots were rejected due to registration and precinct errors.
Despite these challenges, GRIC leaders and advocates continue to emphasize the importance of voting as a form of sovereignty and self-determination. Community outreach efforts, including voter registration drives and a “Get Out the Vote” rally featuring Arizona leaders like Gov. Katie Hobbs and Attorney General Kris Mayes, aimed to mobilize GRIC voters ahead of the election.
Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis acknowledged the hurdles faced by Native voters but reiterated the Community’s commitment to overcoming barriers.
“Despite the barriers faced by members of the community and tribal voters everywhere, voting is a powerful declaration of our sovereignty,” Lewis said. “Our voices matter. Every vote cast by a tribal member strengthens our fight for justice and equity, and for the valuable resources our Community and Indian Country deserve.”
The ITCA analysis included several recommendations to address voting barriers that impact Native communities. These proposed solutions include expanding voter education efforts, enhancing access to mail-in ballots, and increasing the availability of in-person voting locations on reservations. The findings suggest that implementing such measures could help stabilize or increase turnout rates and support broader electoral participation among Native voters in Arizona.